nextgenforensic

Long-term reconviction rates for individuals convicted of indecent image offences appear to be low

Ian A. Elliott

Although they’re a relatively small proportion of individuals convicted of sexual offences there is increasing concern about the behaviours and management of individuals with offenses relating to indecent images of children (IIOC) online. The consensus in the literature appears to be that, contrary to popular notions, sex offenders don’t reoffend at high rates and that the rate for IIOC offenders is lower than those who commit contact sexual offences. This post summarises the findings of our new study into (relatively) long-term reconviction rates for IIOC users.

Read more…

Do you speak the common (risk) language? A guide to risk for sexual offending

Andrew E. Brankley

7,099—that is the number of different languages spoken on Earth. How many do you speak? Most people only speak one and, if you are reading this blog, it is probably English. Learning English is highly valued because it is spoken in so many different countries; it is a common language. A common language is especially valuable in coordinating professionals and the public to prevent sexual abuse.

Read more…

10 books flourishing forensic psychologists should consider investing in

Ian A. Elliott

Books are expensive. However, it’s tough to navigate a career in forensic psychology without any hard-copy reference materials and relying on journal articles alone. I recently noticed that my rare expenditure on books (I am neither senior enough nor expert enough to be inundated with freebies!) has shifted away from ‘topic’ books and further towards ‘methods’ books. Given that many students have only a limited budget to allocate to books, here are a few recommendations from my own experience on where you might want to invest as your career progresses.

Read more…

Can we analyze word associations in online solicitation transcripts using online software Overview? Part 2

Hollie Richardson

Last year Ian Elliott began investigating the use of free, open-source online text analysis tool Overview (read Ian’s post here) to examine online grooming transcripts. The tool – originally designed for investigative journalists and more recently used by researchers – searches and analyses huge sets of documents simultaneously and provides a visualization of the broad trends and patterns across these documents in the form of ‘topic trees’. This post describes the findings of an updated analysis with a larger sample.

Read more…

There is evidence to support the use of Western developed violent risk assessment in China: Responding to Zhou et al. (2015)

Seung Chan Lee and Karl Hanson

The recent article published by Zhou and his colleagues (2015) concluded that there was little evidence to support the use in China of violent risk assessment instruments developed in Western countries. They made two claims: 1) the predictive validity estimates (AUCs) were noticeably lower in China than in Western countries, and 2) the values of predictive validity found in Chinese studies were poor. We believe that the evidence presented in the article does not support either of their claims. This post outlines our rationale for this belief.

Read more…

CoSA: An inconvenient truth

Ian A. Elliott

This week I read the new (July) edition of the International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. Inside was a new outcome study of the Circles of Support and Accountability (CoSA) re-entry program in the South East region of the United Kingdom, by Andrew Bates and colleagues. I consider myself to be a supporter of CoSA and its mission, and I think it’s an excellent program implemented by motivated, diligent, and benevolent individuals. Myself and Ian McPhail have written positively about CoSA on this very blog. Nonetheless, I have constant lingering concerns about the inconvenient truth that, as yet, there is simply not enough evidence to suggest that CoSA programs are effective in their aim to significantly reduce sexual reoffending by Core Members (the individual to whom support and accountability is provided).

Read more…